This week, FanHouse is taking a way too early look at the top teams heading into 2007 with a BlogPoll decided on by our college hoops bloggers. It's a time-honored filler for the off-season, and who are we to buck tradition? Today we look at teams 20 through 16.
Pitt has yet to get past the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Tournament, but their depth and consistency keeps them in the rankings each year. The Panthers lost 3 starters from last year's team, but everyone else from a deep 9 man rotation returns.
In addition, Pitt has huge freshman class with two redshirt freshmen and four true freshmen. Among that group is one of the top-25 national players in the 2007 recruiting class in Forward DeJuan Blair.
Coach Jamie Dixon has kept Pitt among the top teams each year with strong defense and a deliberate offense that looks for the best shot. That may change this season as the team has more athletic and skilled players who have more ability to create their own shot. Dixon has suggested that the team's pace on offense will be faster, and that the team will look to get out and run more than they ever have.
Conference meetings always produce a lot of talk, but little action. What makes the talk interesting is the curiosity over who started the conversation. Take this little bit of gossip from the Big East basketball coaches.
At the Big East meetings last week, one coach proposed a rule that would allow members to recruit prospects who are released from their letters of intent by a fellow league member in the event of a coaching change. It's becoming more common for players to be released under those circumstances, and the coach argued it would be better if that talent remained in the league. The proposal did not gain strong support.
The Big East has one of the tightest restrictions on transfers and poaching within the conference. Essentially, once a player signs with a Big East school, that player can never go to another Big East school to play that sport. Period. Not even as a walk-on paying his/her own way. It stems from the earliest days of the league when it was a basketball only league and most of the schools were in such close proximity and constantly battling over the same recruits. Hard feelings, bitter relations, and nasty accusations among the schools and coaches over players. There was a good reason why they instituted the rule
That the coaches in the conference would reject such a minor exception -- coach leaving, the school formally releasing the player from his letter of intent and the kid never even setting foot on the campus as a student -- is a little surprising. Still, old habits die hard.
The fun part is speculating on which Big East coach made the proposal. My guess: Seton Hall, Bobby Gonzalez. He's been fighting for a slew of recruits in just his first year, and has just missed on a few blue-chippers. He would have the most to gain from this. When you consider that the coaches likely to be on the hot seat next year -- Norm Roberts, St. John's and Tim Welsh, Providence -- are competing directly against him. Not to mention that Jay Wright at Villanova spent the past year contending with rumors that he was heading to the Sixers or a bigger job.
It would also explain why the proposal met with little interest. Gonzalez's, um, intense nature, tends to grate on a lot of people -- especially fellow coaches.
According to the NCAA, if it wasn't for the "squad size adjustments" to the APR results this year, 43.6% of the Division 1 basketball programs would be under the Academic Progrees Rate (APR) this year (PDF, page 5). The Big East is a team worse than that average as 8 of the 16 basketball programs are under the 925 minimum score. The rankings are still incomplete as the APR is to be based on a rolling 4-year rankings, and this is only year three. Teams that are right around 900 are not penalized as there are "squad sized adjustments" to the figures. The NCAA expects that teams around 900 will reach the 925 floor by next year.
Villanova 993
Notre Dame 977
Georgetown 970
Syracuse 948
Rutgers 943
Providence 938
UConn 934
Marquette 927
Seton Hall 921*
Louisville 920*
WVU 915*
St. John's 909*
Pitt 907*
USF 898*
DePaul 893*
Cinci 838**
Cincinnati was penalized one scholarship for not even being close to the confidence level of the APR. Cinci apparently anticipated this, as they have not used all 13 of their allotted scholarships. While the blame will fall largely on former coach Bob Huggins, Cinci was really hurt by the firing of Huggins and the subsequent quitting and transfers of players afterwards.
Once can be luck. Twice might be a pattern. Three straight time is a definite trend. VCU in now three straight games came back from deficits against George Mason in the CAA Championship, deficits of 11 and 13 against Duke in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament and now 19 points against Pitt.
This time, though, the comeback wasn't enough. It only got them to a 69-69 tie with Pitt. The Rams did it again with tremendous defensive pressure and making shots. Really, the latter can't be understated. A team can create defensive pressure and trap all they want, but when coming back from a deep deficit, they have to really hit their shots. Especially for VCU, which has their pressing defense predicated on scoring and then having time to set up. When the shots fell, Pitt didn't have time to push it up into the half-court.
That's part of why they had to come back so much. In the first half, VCU shot barely over 30% in the first half. If they aren't scoring, they aren't able to create pressure and Pitt was able to get a big lead -- 41-26 at the half.
In the second half, as the shots started falling the pressure was able to be picked up and sure enough the gap started closing. Pitt fed the Rams by feeling the pressure and not making free throws. Pitt Point Guard Levance Fields (a nearly 79% FT shooter) missed 2 free throws with 2.1 seconds left in regulation that could have ended it then.
In the overtime, though, Pitt actually showed something surprising in their resolve. Rather then fold after blowing a 19 point lead, they regrouped on both sides of the ball. Levance Fields nailed a clutch 3 and reasserted organizing the Pitt offense. The defense for Pitt, pushed VCU outside and denied easy penetration.
Pitt managed to come away with the 84-79 win. The Panthers advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2004.
Hmm. Lets see, Making it to the Big East Championship, but losing. Check. Playing a mid-major school from Ohio in the opening round. Check. Beating them soundly. Check. The expected Second Round opponent, a major name in college basketball, upset. Check.
Last year, Pitt got to the BIg East Championship game, but fell to Syracuse. Pitt trounced Kent State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Everyone expected them to face Kansas in a 4/5 game. Kansas, though, was upset by Bradley. Bradley then knocked out Pitt.
In 2007, Pitt again goes to the Big East Championship game and this time gets humiliated by Georgetown. In the opening round, Pitt has no real problems with Wright State. Duke was expected to be the team Pitt would see in the second round, but instead the Blue Devils were beaten by VCU.
Just a coincidence, to be sure. An uncomfortable, deja vu, rerun of a coincidence. Nothing else. Sure.
Conference:Big East Record: 27-6, 12-4 in conference RPI: 5 How They Got In: At-large. Seed/Bracket: 3 / West (Kansas)
Mascot: Panther. The Panther was adopted in 1909, and part of the reason was that at that point there was no other college that called themselves "Panthers" -- forget that catamounts, mountain lions, pumas and cougars are all merely different names for the same cat, felis concolor.
Big Wins: Florida State, Washington, Villanova, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown.
Notable Loss: Pitt went to OT to lose to Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City back in January. Player You Should Know: Senior Center Aaron Gray, a first team All-Big East and third team All-American. He is dangerous even when he isn't shooting, because he can pass out of the double team to find open shooters on the perimeter. He averaged a double-double all season.
Outlook: Pitt should at least make the Sweet 16. They play at a deliberate pace that often keeps games close. They are a balanced team that doesn't get rattled in games. The one thing to watch is in games where the opposing teams have athletic and quick guards.
It may be tough to figure which teams deserve a #1 seed, when they all have flaws or reasons not to "deserve" it (between Wisconsin, UCLA, UNC, Ohio St., Florida and Kansas). That leaves two of the teams to fall to the 2 line. So there are no shortage of teams that seem in line or mentioned for a one of the other two #2 seeds: Memphis, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pitt and Washington St.
It seems hard to imagine that the top team from the Big East would not get a #2 seed. Even in a year where the conference is a bit down. That means tonight's game between Pitt and Georgetown will likely decide one of the #2 seed. The loser will be a #3 seed.
The two teams were picked to be the best teams in the Big East to start the season will end the conference championship facing each other one last time. Pitt and Georgetown split the two games this season. Both teams have played very well in their two tournament games.
It may have required hanging on for dear life. It may have needed double OT, but in the Big East the top 4 seeds all advanced to the semi-finals for the first time in 10 years.
Pitt completed the top-seed sweep in the late game with an 89-79 beating of Marquette. Once more proving the truism that it is damn difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season.
The game was tight most of the way, but Pitt had great balance with 5 players in double figures. They were able to effectively and often get it inside to Aaron Gray who had 22 points and 10 rebounds.
Unlike the prior meetings, Marquette was unable to force turnovers. Instead, Marquette turned it over 14 times to Pitt's 7. Couple that with Pitt being more aggressive inside and better offensive rebounding by Pitt, and Marquette just never had enough chances to score.
This was a game for Marquette where not having Jerel McNeal available really hurt them. While Dan Fitzgerald was able to make up for the scoring with 20 points, he is not even close to being the defensive presence that McNeal is. Additionally, it takes away some of the aggressiveness for Marquette on offense as Fitzgerald is much more of a spot or jump shooter. That means less penetration and more standing around trying to create space for a shot.
Tonight has 3 teams playing for NCAA Tournament seed and 1 team trying to get on the right side of the bubble.
#7 WVU vs. #2 Louisville, 7pm These two never faced each other this season. so there is even less information about this game. The Louisville defense is a clear advantage for Louisville, but with WVU the issue is always about whether they will be hitting their 3s. This should present a real challenge to Pitino and Louisville's young team. The way to minimize the 3s from WVU is to be very patient on defense to prevent the uncontested shot. They will keep the ball moving about trying to find the open shot. WVU is a bubble team still looking for quality wins. Especially quality wins that are on neutral or road. This would be a big one.
On defense for WVU, I just don't see the 1-3-1 zone being as much of a problem for Louisville since they have players that can attack the basket and go right inside. Unless the Cardinals get in early foul trouble or the officials call a lot of charges, Louisville should be in good shape.
Prediction: Unless the Mountaineers have a second straight night of hot 3-point shooting, Louisville should be able to take care of WVU. They present a tough match-up for WVU who will have to stay desperate.WVU playing yesterday should have little impact given their depth. Still, this will be Louisville's game. #6 Marquette vs. #3 Pitt, 9pm Marquette won both meetings this year plus the last game they played last year to make it 3 straight against Pitt. Every game the Golden Eagles play, it seems someone different steps up to help compensate for the loss of Jerel McNeal and the ongoing shooting woes of Dominic James. Last week against Pitt, David Cubillan stepped in with a career high 20 points. Yesterday night, Dan Fitzgerald who had scored 17 points in his prior 4 games dropped 20 on St. John's. Who's it going to be tonight? Ousmane Barro? Lazar Hayward?
For Pitt, the problems in the past month have been that the guards have struggled mightily. Beyond simply not shooting well -- and thus not opening things up inside for Aaron Gray as teams won't leave the double team -- they have not done well against more athletic, aggressive guards. This is a major reason why Marquette has won three straight against them.
Prediction: It's really hard to win three games in one season against another team (in part because it very rarely happens in college basketball), but it's hard not to pick Marquette. They had to work harder than expected against St. John's last night, but they are an athletic team that doesn't carry big bodies that lumber about. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue. Marquette has to be the pick until the Pitt guards show they can shoot against the quicker, defensive-minded Marquette guards.
Look, I understand the Big East has 16 teams, and it can be hard to pick the best players for an All-Big East team, but to have a 1st team with 11 players is a joke. It may create some hard feelings (maybe) or may take a little more effort but if conferences with 12 members can have a 5-member or even 6-member All-conference squad, surely the Big East could at least limit it to a max of 8.
Instead there's this:
2006-07 All-BIG EAST First Team *Jeff Green, Georgetown, Jr. *Roy Hibbert, Georgetown, Jr. Dominic James, Marquette, So. Russell Carter, Notre Dame, Sr. Colin Falls, Notre Dame, Sr. *Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh, Sr. *Herbert Hill, Providence, Sr. Lamont Hamilton, St. John's, Sr. *Demetris Nichols, Syracuse, Sr. Curtis Sumpter, Villanova, Sr. Frank Young, West Virginia, Sr.
The asterisk indicates a unanimous choice.
At least five of the choices were unanimous -- even if it was all forwards and centers. Not a particularly strong year in the Big East for guards.
That's ridiculous. There's a 10-member second team and 7 players listed for the "honorable mention."
The Big East designated 28 players as all-conference. That's 35% of the starters in the Big East being put among the "best" of the group. Clearly the Big East doesn't want to hurt anyone's feelings, but I'd say if you start in the Big East, you have to be pissed that you somehow didn't make the cut. They must really think you suck.
But wait, there's more. There's still the 11-member All-Rookie Team.
This week, FanHouse is taking a way too early look at the top teams heading into 2007 with a BlogPoll decided on by our college hoops bloggers. It's a time-honored filler for the off-season, and who are we to buck tradition? Today we look at teams 20 through 16.
Conference meetings always produce a lot of talk, but little action. What makes the talk interesting is the curiosity over who started the conversation. Take this little bit of 
According to the NCAA, if it wasn't for the "squad size adjustments" to the APR results this year, 
Hmm. Lets see, Making it to the Big East Championship, but losing. Check. Playing a mid-major school from Ohio in the opening round. Check. Beating them soundly. Check. The expected Second Round opponent, a major name in college basketball, upset. Check. 
Conference: 
It may be tough to figure which teams deserve a #1 seed, when they all have flaws or reasons not to "deserve" it (between Wisconsin, UCLA, UNC, Ohio St., Florida and Kansas). That leaves two of the teams to fall to the 2 line. So there are no shortage of teams that seem in line or mentioned for a one of the other two #2 seeds: Memphis, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pitt and Washington St.
It may have required
Tonight has 3 teams playing for NCAA Tournament seed and 1 team trying to get on the right side of the bubble.
Look, I understand the Big East has 16 teams, and it can be hard to pick the best players for an All-Big East team, but to have a 
