NCAA Basketball FanHouse http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com NCAA Basketball FanHouse http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/media/feedlogo.gif NCAA Basketball FanHouse http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com en-us Copyright 2009 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/NCAA Hypocritical in Stance on Gamblinghttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2009/04/28/ncaa-hypocritical-in-stance-on-gambling/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2009/04/28/ncaa-hypocritical-in-stance-on-gambling/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2009/04/28/ncaa-hypocritical-in-stance-on-gambling/#commentsFiled under:

The NCAA will tell you that college students are in trouble. On campuses across the country, they are subject to a dangerous gambling culture.

Student bookies, gamblers and fixers are everywhere, knowing just how to tap into a poor victim. So college athletes can find themselves in trouble, and asked to shave points or throw games for money. It's not just a sports issue regarding the integrity of games, but also the NCAA will tell you it's a human issue.

So it's no shock, really, to see the point-shaving scandal at Toledo.

We've seen them in campuses everywhere, from Boston College to Northwestern, from Arizona State to Fresno State. From Maryland to Toledo. Big, small, east, west, north, south.

The FBI has been looking into point-shaving allegations at Toledo for at least four years. It now alleges that former running back Adam Cuomo, with the help of a Detroit-area gambler in 2003, recruited teammates to take part in a point-shaving scheme over a three-year period. He also is said to have recruited basketball players to fix Toledo hoops games.

Years ago, the NCAA started talking tough about the scourge of gambling. And years later, it's still talking, talking, talking, even putting up occasional fliers. At the same time, the latest trend at colleges across the country is to sell ads to casinos and place them in stadiums.

So the NCAA will tell you that kids are getting hurt from a gambling environment, but at the same time NCAA schools are in business with the gamblers.

Right side of mouth, meet left side. This is the NCAA's little con, arguing one point for the good of humanity and profiting from the opposite side.

How does this work? I asked Rachel Newman Baker, the NCAAs gambling czar, who passed my request onto a spokesperson, who answered this way in an email:

"Our position on sports wagering has not softened at all; we continue to be stridently opposed to any type of sports wagering. You are not likely to find anyone in the membership who doesn't agree.

"But we have come to understand that there are different perspectives within the membership about commercial activities, including the appropriateness of accepting casino advertising. What some institutions may see as acceptable, other may not. This is an evolving process.

"The NCAA does not interfere in the financial relationships/agreements of its institutions, as long as they do not violate NCAA legislation."

I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to call BS here. The NCAA is notorious for this type of doublespeak, a crafty way, basically, of blowing smoke when no legitimate explanation exists.

So the NCAA makes a moral argument, but then polices its morals with economics.

There is money to be made, so ethics are gone?

These are the people educating our kids.

Murray Sperber, a professor at University of California, Berkeley, who has written several books on the excesses of the NCAA, talks about the uncomfortable relationship the NCAA has with gambling.

"A huge part of the NCAA Tournament is the gambling, the office pools, or much-larger pools that [former Washington football coach] Rick Neuheisel was in. Because of gambling, they get good ratings. Who would watch first-round games if, in fact, gambling were outlawed on college basketball. What would happen to the $6 billion they get from CBS?

"At the very core of the NCAA, the mother's milk they live on, the March Madness money, is this deep, deep hypocrisy. I remember their own poll showed that one in five athletes had bet on college sports.

"Should they encourage gambling? Especially when one of the problem groups of gamblers, people who can't control their gambling, are college kids? They get in over their heads."

Meanwhile, last year, the University of New Mexico took $2.5 million for a five-year deal that made the Route 66 Casino Hotel its "exclusive gaming sponsor."

Whatever that means.

"Corporate sponsorships," UNM president David Schmidly said at the time, "are very important to the future growth and success of our athletic department."

Those vulnerable college students the NCAA will tell you about? Not as important.

Some schools have played sporting events in casinos.

And seven of the Pac-10 Conference's 10 schools take casino or lottery advertising, according to the Oregonian, Portland's newspaper. How prevalent is this nationally?

"I would say there are more schools that do have them now than don't," Tim Roberts, president of Oregon Sports Network, part owner of the University of Oregon's media rights, told the paper.

And here comes another problem with gambling and college sports, this time at Toledo.

Yet the NCAA tries to have it all ways at once. It did the same thing with the American Indian mascot issue, saying such images were "hostile and abusive," and basically forcing schools, such as Illinois, to drop the symbol. Meanwhile, Florida State got to keep its hostile and abusive image because it had a financial agreement with the tribe.

Is it hostile and abusive or not? The NCAA will tell you it is.

Look, if the NCAA doesn't care about gambling, then it should stop pretending.

But the guardian of your standards has to be your heart and your conscience. If gambling is hurting college students, then the relationship to gambling has to be cut. It's simple. And it doesn't matter what that does to the NCAA Tournament, or to a university's "financial relationships/agreements."

NCAA Hypocritical in Stance on Gambling originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Tue, 28 Apr 2009 21:52:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Greg CouchTue, 28 Apr 2009 21:52:00 EST Former Toledo Guard Sammy Villegas Is Charged With Point Shavinghttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/08/06/former-toledo-guard-sammy-villegas-is-charged-with-point-shaving/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/08/06/former-toledo-guard-sammy-villegas-is-charged-with-point-shaving/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/08/06/former-toledo-guard-sammy-villegas-is-charged-with-point-shaving/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Sammy Villegas, a guard for the Toledo basketball team until 2006, has been charged with point shaving during the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 seasons.

Another player who Villegas paid with a check to shave points to has yet to be charged.

Villegas was charged with conspiracy to influence sports contests by bribery and received money and other gifts in exchange for fixing games, prosecutors said. If convicted, he could face up to five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

The charges were first reported Wednesday by WUPW-TV in Toledo.

Prosecutors also didn't name who paid the players. Villegas traveled to Michigan several times to meet with another participant in the scheme, court documents said.

A year ago, a member of the Toledo football team was charged with participating in a bribery scheme to influence sporting contests but those charges were later dropped. The gambler tied to that (he wasn't charged) hasn't been directly linked to Villegas but that some members of the hoops team knew him.

Prosecutors are saying that Villegas intentionally missed two free throws late in a game against "Central State" (possibly Central Michigan University).

Villegas has been playing pro in his native Puerto Rico.

Previously at FanHouse
Point Shaving Can Only Be Limited
Toledo Gambling Scandal 99% Funny Business
This Is Why Legal Gambling Helps
Point Shaving At Toledo

Former Toledo Guard Sammy Villegas Is Charged With Point Shaving originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Wed, 06 Aug 2008 21:49:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Shiloh CarderWed, 06 Aug 2008 21:49:00 EST Live Blog: March Madness Vegas Stylehttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/03/20/l/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/03/20/l/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/03/20/l/#commentsFiled under: , ,



8:58am - It's 8:58am local time here at the Hard Rock Hotel and the temporary sports book arrangement in "The Joint" (the hotel's normal concert venu) is packed with fans sporting every piece of college gear imagineable. Highlights from the pre-tipoff portion of the morning include a trio of Duke fans walking down the line waiting to get in and being shunned as if they were wearing Taliban State t-shirts - they are the clear social pariahs of the day. The Hard Rock setup is terrific this year, with 5 projection screens, all sorts of basketball themed arcade games, pool tables and traditional casino table games and a $35 all you can eat, all you can drink special for the entire day - I wish we had a line on the over / under for how many people will be carried out by security after passing out on their table from a combination of 3 hours of sleep, 12 hours of basketball, 4 plates of chicken wings and a dozen Bud Lights ... I'd be taking the over in a heartbeat. For the early morning session I like Kansas to cover against Portland State and I like Xavier big over Georgia .. who do you guys have? I'll be updating every couple of hours and trying to pass on some of the Vegas excitement to those of you stuck at work, so keep checking in.

11:44am - First round games just finished ... the last minute of the Xavier and Georgia game was complete pandemonium as everyone with Butler -8.5 was screaming for Georgia to foul and let Xavier cover from the free throw line and everyone with Georgia was dying for a desperation 3 to fall. Xavier covered, half the crowd celebrated ... first great "Vegas" moment of the weekend and it's not even noon yet. We also have our first random former college / NBA player sighting as Scott Padgett is in the house putting a few bets down and watching his Wildcats (most surprisingly ... he's sitting with some Louisville fans!). Both my choices for the early session went well, Kansas and Xavier both covered. I'm liking UNLV as a slight dog to Kent State and Butler to cover -5 right now, lets see how that goes.

Live Blog: March Madness Vegas Style originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Thu, 20 Mar 2008 11:48:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Nathan FowlerThu, 20 Mar 2008 11:48:00 EST NCAA Tournament Gambling Cheatsheetshttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/03/19/ncaa-tournament-gambling-cheatsheets/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/03/19/ncaa-tournament-gambling-cheatsheets/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2008/03/19/ncaa-tournament-gambling-cheatsheets/#commentsFiled under: ,



I'm off to Vegas this afternoon to soak in the awesomeness that is the opening weekend of the NCAA Basketball Tournament - make sure to check in tomorrow on the Fanhouse for a live blog of the festivities. As part of my now yearly pilgrimage to Vegas for this weekend, I started preparing simple cheat sheets with the pertinent information for each game of the first two days. I've found that making them too complex just leads to confusion, so there's only a few key highlights included. All the games are listed in sequential order - trying to read a normal bracket sheet and divine the next game that will pop up can be difficult. For each game there is the Ken Pomery rating for each team as well as the log5 predicted winner based on his pythagorean ratings. A quick glance at these ratings will show that games such as the #6 USC v. #11 Kansas State matchup are likely upsets. The other key piece of information is each teams performance against the spread during the season from VegasInsider.com - an easy to way to see if that #1 seed is likely to cover that enormous line (in UNC's case, yes ... for Memphis, probably not).

Download the cheatsheets for Thursday and Friday and then follow along the next couple of days from your cubicle if you can't make it to Vegas - Fanhouse will try to bring some of the buzz and excitement from the sports books to your desk.

NCAA Tournament Gambling Cheatsheets originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Wed, 19 Mar 2008 16:13:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Nathan FowlerWed, 19 Mar 2008 16:13:00 EST Are You Taking Kentucky +3.5 at Houston?http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/12/18/are-you-taking-kentucky-3-5-at-houston/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/12/18/are-you-taking-kentucky-3-5-at-houston/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/12/18/are-you-taking-kentucky-3-5-at-houston/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

According to Jeff Sagarin and Ken Pomeroy, both UAB and Houston are two of the better teams in Conference USA -- at least of the teams not located in Memphis -- and UAB was able to pull off a win against Kentucky last Saturday. Knowing those facts, I can't decide whether or not I'm surprised that when Kentucky takes the floor tonight against the Cougars in Houston, Big Blue will be underdogs. At least they will be in many sportsbooks, where UK is getting 3.5 points in tonight's game (of course, this is all "for entertainment purposes only," natch).

After all, this isn't Phi Slama Jama Houston, although they do some things well. They can shoot from behind the arc: UH is ninth nationally in three pointers made (and good for 38%). The Coogs take a lot of shots overall, and that means chances for rebounds. Statistically, Houston's a slightly better rebounding team, but they haven't played nearly the schedule Kentucky has. In a rebounding matchup, Patrick Patterson could have a big night for UK.

After all, Kentucky -- while reeling a little right now -- is still Kentucky. They've got Ramel Bradley, who can shoot the lights out, and they'll get some minutes from Jodie Meeks, who hasn't played since the 'Cats loss to Gardner-Webb in the second game of the season. That loss started the downward spiral that claimed four Kentucky losses in seven games, but a big win tonight could pull UK out of the nose dive.

So again I ask: would you take Kentucky and the points? Or will struggles continue for Billy Gillespie and co.?

Are You Taking Kentucky +3.5 at Houston? originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Tue, 18 Dec 2007 13:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Billy GillespieBillyGillespieHouston BasketballHoustonBasketballKentucky Houston PreviewKentuckyHoustonPreviewAndy KatzerTue, 18 Dec 2007 13:45:00 EST The ACC Has Been Performing Background Checks on Officials for a Yearhttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/07/25/the-acc-has-performing-background-checks-on-officials-for-a-year/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/07/25/the-acc-has-performing-background-checks-on-officials-for-a-year/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/07/25/the-acc-has-performing-background-checks-on-officials-for-a-year/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , , ,

With the sports world buzzing over the NBA's gambling scandal involving a referee, the commissioner for the Atlantic Coast Conference has come out to say that they've been performing background checks on their officials since the last school year. Commish John Swofford:

"It's not a catchall, end-all by any means, but it does show a proactive way of looking at this and hopefully raising red flags if there are any to be raised."

"There wasn't anything that we saw that concerned us, that stimulated our belief that we should take this route," Swofford said. "But this whole issue of gambling is so prevalent in our society. ... We just simply want to do everything we can proactively to have that kind of integrity in our officials as well as our student-athletes."

The ACC is primarily doing this with their football and basketball [both men's and women's] officials. According to Swofford, the ACC and Big Ten are the only leagues to do these checks ... though more could follow suit in the wake of the NBA's problems. The domino effect of this could be mistrust in all officiating, especially in basketball. According to the article, the league has been looking into "any ties to gambling on sports, officials' credit histories and criminal and driving records at the local, state and federal levels."

Most long-time ACC fans know the snide remarks of officials favoring the "Big Four schools" [UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest] ... with Duke, specifically, being targeted as a program that gets beneficial calls.

The ACC Has Been Performing Background Checks on Officials for a Year originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Wed, 25 Jul 2007 06:09:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Shiloh CarderWed, 25 Jul 2007 06:09:00 EST Take UCLA and the Three Pointshttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/30/take-ucla-and-the-three-points/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/30/take-ucla-and-the-three-points/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/30/take-ucla-and-the-three-points/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,


That's what the money-makers over at The Big Lead are saying.

Take UCLA +3.

We got the Bruins at 3.5 and it wouldn't surprise us if UCLA won. The Bruins are far stronger a squad than last year in virtually every category. Collison is a true guard; Farmar was a scoring point. Shipp is the perfect three to neutralize Corey Brewer. UCLA just stopped the best offensive team in the tournament, and forced them into 53 turnovers. Key to Florida, as always, is Lee Humphrey. If he hits five triples, Gators win. Four or fewer and UCLA takes it.

Good points throughout that blockquote. Especially like the Shipp being able to neutralize Brewer argument. Though I don't think Humphrey's gonna be the difference. A few threes (or missed threes) could swing things, sure, but the Gators' towers might be too much for a physical, yet not terribly tall Bruins squad.

Betting isn't so much my thing -- it can take the fun out of a great game if things don't you your way -- but if it's yours, the guys at TBL are good, so UCLA +3 might be your best bet.

Take UCLA and the Three Points originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Fri, 30 Mar 2007 15:14:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>TBPFri, 30 Mar 2007 15:14:00 EST Winning Your Office Pool? The IRS Wants a Cuthttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/28/winning-your-office-pool-the-irs-wants-a-cut/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/28/winning-your-office-pool-the-irs-wants-a-cut/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/28/winning-your-office-pool-the-irs-wants-a-cut/#commentsFiled under: ,

Money won at gambling is taxable income. So with both the Final Four and April 15 coming up, remember that if you win your office pool this year, the IRS wants some of that money. And if you won your office pool last year, you'd better mention that on your tax forms.

USA Today's personal finance columnist, Sandra Block, has some friendly reminders. First of all, any income you win gambling has to be reported on Line 21 of Form 1040. Now, I don't want to sound like I'm advocating tax evasion or anything (I can just feel my name being added to the audit list as I write this), but if you win a low-level office pool, Block indicates that there's approximately zero chance of you getting prosecuted for tax evasion if you forget about that office pool when you're doing your taxes a year from now.

On the other hand, if you win good money at a track or a casino, the IRS probably already knows about it -- those places are required to report it. And if you win more than $5,000, the casino is supposed to withhold 25% of it right then and there. Gambling losses are tax deductible, but that only works if you itemize your deductions.

Honestly, though, does anyone who wins the office pool actually put that money down on their tax forms? An H&R Block survey found that nearly 60% of taxpayers said they would "not be very likely" to report their NCAA tournament winnings to the IRS. I think that means about 40% of taxpayers are lying.

Winning Your Office Pool? The IRS Wants a Cut originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Wed, 28 Mar 2007 06:42:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Michael David SmithWed, 28 Mar 2007 06:42:00 EST Some Bettors Are Very Unhappy With Tim Floydhttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/26/some-bettors-are-very-unhappy-with-tim-floyd/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/26/some-bettors-are-very-unhappy-with-tim-floyd/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/26/some-bettors-are-very-unhappy-with-tim-floyd/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

USC basketball coach Tim Floyd drew a technical foul late in his team's loss to North Carolina, and that technical raises some real questions about Floyd's ability to keep his cool. His team still had an outside chance of winning the game until he decided to lash out at the referees like they were Mike Wilbon.

But his technical didn't just cost his team an outside shot of winning. As Marco at Just Call Me Juice notes, it also cost his team a very good shot of winning against the spread. That means some people are very unhappy with Floyd.

Tim's technical came with the Trojans down 6 to the Tar Heels. The key here is that the line on the game was North Carolina -8.5. Of course, the Heels proceeded to go to line and hit the technical free throws. They then got the ball again and hit two more free throws. Heels are now up and covering the spread.

That gave North Carolina its final winning margin of 10 points. Marco was at the game and says a lot of people in his section wanted a piece of Floyd. You generally don't want a bunch of gamblers wanting a piece of you. That's yet another reason Floyd needs to keep his temper in check in the future.

Some Bettors Are Very Unhappy With Tim Floyd originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Mon, 26 Mar 2007 09:22:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Tim FloydTimFloydMichael David SmithMon, 26 Mar 2007 09:22:00 EST You're Darn Right They Know Something We Don'thttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/18/youre-darn-right-they-know-something-we-dont/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/18/youre-darn-right-they-know-something-we-dont/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/18/youre-darn-right-they-know-something-we-dont/#commentsFiled under: ,

For every correct gambling prediction like my brilliant UNC-Virginia Tech pick, there's a disaster like this.

Speaking of Saturday's games ... did anyone notice that just one favorite covered? Forget your brackets for a moment and let's look at the gambling lines from Saturday's action:

Ohio State favored by 7.5 ... won by 7
Texas A&M favored by 3 .... won by 3
Pittsburgh favored by 7 ... won by 5
Georgetown favored by 8 ... won by 7
UCLA favored by 7 ... won by 5
Maryland favored by 5.5 ... lost
Washington St. favored by 2.5 ... lost

The only favorite to cover was North Carolina, which pulled away late from Michigan State to register an 81-67 victory, beating the 10.5 point spread.

Does this not freak anyone else out? Even if you're a non-gambler, does this not surprise you? How could anyone predict so many games in such a close manner, even if it's their job? It's enough to scare a gambler away from Sunday's games - where, if you ask me, there are no 'locks' whatsoever.

That being said, underdogs such as USC, Virginia Tech, Memphis and Nevada will be sexy picks today. But if you're into the law of averages ... then all those picks will be wrong.

You're Darn Right They Know Something We Don't originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Sun, 18 Mar 2007 09:43:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>The Big LeadSun, 18 Mar 2007 09:43:00 EST What the Gambling Lines Say About Saturday's Gameshttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/17/what-the-gambling-lines-say-about-saturdays-games/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/17/what-the-gambling-lines-say-about-saturdays-games/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/17/what-the-gambling-lines-say-about-saturdays-games/#commentsFiled under: ,

After crying myself to sleep last night following the Villanova loss, I woke up refreshed and ready to gamble on the eight games being played today. Have you seen some of these lines? After linesmakers decided not to put any moneylines (for the uninitiated, that simply means picking a team to win) on most of the top seeds in the first round, that's no longer the case.

How could any gambler - or college kid unwisely maxing out his credit cards - not go with the three-team parlay of Georgetown, Ohio State, and North Carolina to win? Are they not mortal locks?

Boston College has zero size inside, and it would take a miraculous three-point shooting performance to topple the Hoyas. Ohio State is strangely only a 7.5 point favorite against Xavier. if you can get past the in-state rival angle, and the Thad Matta subplot, this is a mismatch. Ohio State doesn't blow out many teams, but I'm smelling a 20-point triumph here.

And for those of you worried about how North Carolina might handle a rugged Michigan State squad (the line has dipped from 11 to 9, so a bunch of people seem to like the Spartans), a couple things to point out: Michigan State was 1-8 on the road this season and the Spartans lost center Idong Ibok to an elbow injury in the first round. That leaves nobody to handle Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright. This one will be ugly.

What the Gambling Lines Say About Saturday's Games originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Sat, 17 Mar 2007 13:05:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>The Big LeadSat, 17 Mar 2007 13:05:00 EST Statistical Strategy Says That North Carolina Will Be National Champshttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/13/statistical-strategy-says-that-north-carolina-will-be-national-c/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/13/statistical-strategy-says-that-north-carolina-will-be-national-c/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/03/13/statistical-strategy-says-that-north-carolina-will-be-national-c/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

One of the greatest things about March Madness is that it unites two segments of society that normally have nothing to do with each other: jocks and nerds. Of course, the jocks are now ex-jocks [or softball guy] but the nerds keep nerding on. Both will be filling out brackets for their office pools this week.

Well, the nerds have a way of figuring these brackets out. Something called "statisics". Pete Tiernan at ESPN.com (ESPN Insider subscription needed) has used math and a slide rule to figure out this NCAA tournament. Ol' Pete lays down his brainiac wonders over at www.bracketscience.com as well. Dude figured out that there are "more than nine quintillion" different scenerios of how this tournament could end up. Just try to let all that fill your head!

In his article, he figures out ... through his statistical models ... that North Carolina will be the 2007 NCAA National Champions. Why? Heck, I don't know. Just reading his analysis of information made my hair hurt. But what he does do is fill his brackets backwards. How? He figures out that the weight of those games are much greater, so getting those game correct is paramount. So pick the best team, name them your champs, then work in reverse:

Based on the "champion" rules, North Carolina edges out Florida. While both are from a Big Six conference, have an All-American, and a winning streak of less than six games -- North Carolina gets a slightly larger percentage of points from its frontcourt. It's close (a 3.6 percent difference), but rules are rules -- and so the Tar Heels are the 2007 statistical champs.

His method isn't to pick the perfect tournament as it is to gain the most points. Basically, he figures out his champion, his national runner up and his Final Four [his is UNC beating Kansas for the title, with Florida and Texas A&M rounding out the Final Four, due to his statistical criteria]. Then, he goes back and fills in the bracket with the other Final Four hopefuls going as far as they can go. He then just uses stats to figure out trends here and there, applies them and then whittles the "picking" to just a few games.

If you have an ESPN Insider account, give this article a read. It will blow your mind.

Statistical Strategy Says That North Carolina Will Be National Champs originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Tue, 13 Mar 2007 01:27:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Shiloh CarderTue, 13 Mar 2007 01:27:00 EST Do They Know Something We Don't?http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/02/13/do-they-know-something-we-dont/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/02/13/do-they-know-something-we-dont/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/02/13/do-they-know-something-we-dont/#commentsFiled under: , ,

This is a feature I've been periodically running over in the NBA section, but for a night, I thought I'd bring it to the land of college basketball.

North Carolina hosts Virginia Tech tonight in a game that screams revenge. Exactly one month ago in Blacksburg, the Hokies knocked off the then-No.1 Tar Heels, 94-88. Obviously, payback is on the menu.

But a 15.5 point spread? That's what North Carolina is favored by. Do the bookies know something the general public doesn't? Sure, the Hokies struggled on the road earlier this season - witness losses at Western Michigan, GW, and Marshall - but in recent weeks, they've notched a couple good ones at Duke and Georgia Tech. (Aside: My cousin's middle school team nearly upset Duke in Cameron recently, but their 5-foot-9 center struggled against Josh McRoberts.)

Are the Heels a lock at home? Well ... yeah. The margin of victory at home in their last five games is a staggering 26 points per game. The closest anyone has gotten this season is seven (Winthrop in November).

Presented with this evidence ... I still like Virginia Tech to play North Carolina close. Certainly closer than 15 points. VT has been ranked in recent weeks. How can they be this much of a dog on the road? The Hokies match up very well with the Tar Heels from an athletic standpoint (just as NC State did), and the Dean Dome has never proved to be an intimidating atmosphere for visiting teams.

Do They Know Something We Don't? originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Tue, 13 Feb 2007 13:38:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>The Big LeadTue, 13 Feb 2007 13:38:00 EST Fazekas Out Tonight; Likely Saturdayhttp://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/01/11/fazekas-out-tonight-likely-saturday/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/01/11/fazekas-out-tonight-likely-saturday/http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2007/01/11/fazekas-out-tonight-likely-saturday/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Nevada coach Mark Fox said that Nick Fazekas will miss tonight's game with San Jose State and he is not optimistic about Saturday's game at Hawaii. Fazekas has not missed a game during his previous three seasons in Reno. The game in Hawaii will really be tough, because it is not easy to win there anyway. But tonight's game with San Jose State has some interesting gambling possibilities. Nevada is giving away 8 1/2 points tonight. That line obviously has been adjusted by because of the injury, otherwise you would have to figure that it would be in double digits. The Spartans are not a very good basketball team. They might have been the worst team that walked into Titan Gym at Cal State Fullerton this season, and the Titans played a couple of NAIA teams. It should be interesting to see how much activity is placed on this game, one way or the other, because of this.

Fazekas Out Tonight; Likely Saturday originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Thu, 11 Jan 2007 15:16:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

 

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]]>Adam RankThu, 11 Jan 2007 15:16:00 EST