NCAA Basketball Clemson

This will be a transition year for most of the ACC. Pretty much everyone took a hit this offseason, with only four teams really looking like locks for the NCAA tournament. There is little doubt that North Carolina will be the favorite ... but remember that this was the case last year ... and UNC was nearly the #5 seed in the ACC tournament. NC State, Duke and Clemson have the best shot at giving the Heels trouble for the title

1-North Carolina: Sometimes subtraction isn't a bad thing. The Heels lose Brandan Wright and Reyshawn Terry, but the rotation should be tighter and everyone more understanding of their roles. If UNC is going to make its title run, they better do it now before Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough bolt.

2-NC State: Brandon Costner is my pick for ACC Player of the Year. With JJ Hickson running alongside him in the paint, Costner is free to show his entire game [similar to how Wright helped Hansbrough last year in Chapel Hill]. This team is ready to break out and get back into the ACC's elite. At issue is finding Engin Atsur's replacement ... since he was so key in the success of the Pack last year.

3-Duke: With Kyle Singler and Taylor King coming in, expect Duke to go back to its gun-slinging ways. Last year's team wasn't normal Duke: they struggled to find their offense and were very inconsistent shooting. The big issue this year is ... well, what happens if they keep missing those threes? Josh McRoberts is gone and there really isn't anyone reliable in the paint to score or rebound.

4-Clemson: Can the Tigers get back that team that was scorching the early part of the season? Well, they have four returning starters and has one of the better frontcourts in the conference. They just need to get their minds right. This team has the talent ... they just need to tighten the bolts and clean the sawdust.

5-Virginia: Dave Leitao better thank God that Sean Singletary came back. The ACC player of the year candidate will be asked to do even more with JR Reynolds and Jason Cain gone.

6-Maryland: Gotta love those Terps! The head-scratchers are gone, with their understudies ready to take their place. The team will rely on James Gist and Greivis Vasquez to become leaders on and off the floor. However, this streaky team must find someone who can hit a shot.

When you are a bubble team that saw your dreams crushed on Selection Sunday, that usually means that you are in the running for a top seed in the National Invitational Tournament. Yeah, it isn't the same as being in the NCAA tournament and you may laugh and spit all over it, but some of these kids will be playing for the final time organized hoops ... so back off!

The NIT [which is now owned by the NCAA] is scaled down to 32 teams and is organized somewhat similar to the NCAA's tournament. There are North, South, East and West regions. I probably won't speak much of this tournament after this, so you ACC fans of these teams take notice now. Three ACC schools made this tournament, meaning 10 of the 12 members will play in the postseason.

Clemson is the #1 seed in the South Region and will host East Tennessee State this Wednesday [6pm on ESPNU]. If they win, they'll take on the Ole Miss-Appalachian State winner on Monday. The Tigers were 17-0 to start the season, becoming the final team to lose their first game. After that, they kept losing - to the tune of 10 of their last 14. As coach Oliver Purnell is telling you in the picture above, the Tigers need just 5 wins to claim this title.

Florida State is the #2 seed in the North Region and will host Toledo this Tuesday [6pm on ESPU]. A win pits them against the Michigan-Utah State winner this Thursday [sure, we'll all watch that one]. NC State, who made an amazing run to the ACC Championship game, is a #6 seed in the East Region and will travel to Drexel for their game this Tuesday [8pm, ESPNU]. Drexel was one of the most controversial ommissions from the NCAA's field of 65 teams.

There are some good teams in the NIT. Besides the ACC schools and Drexel, Syracuse, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Air Force and Kansas State are just a few teams that could've made a dent in the NCAAs.

Okay, the ACC tournament is done with UNC's 89-80 win over a very impressive NC State team today. One this we are certain of is that North Carolina will be in the dance. After that, there are teams pretty much in, but who knows how the committee views them or views this conference.

NORTH CAROLINA: IN. [RPI: 3, SOS: 5] They are in by winning the ACC tournament and will be, at worst, a #2 seed and will most likely play in the Winston-Salem pod next weekend. With UCLA losing two in a row [both to unranked teams] and depending on the outcome of the Big Ten tournament [UNC probably needs Ohio State to win that one] the Tar Heels could be looking at a #1 seed.

MARYLAND: IN. [RPI: 16, SOS: 10] The Terps have been very impressive over the 2nd half of the ACC season, and they probably won't get caught up by their loss to Miami on Thursday due to the overall weirdness of the ACC tournament. Right now, they are probably a #5 seed, but hopes to be a #4 that can get to that Winston-Salem pod.

DUKE: IN. [RPI: 15, SOS: 3]. Despite what people may hope, Duke is definitely in. I mean, their computer numbers are outstanding and it isn't like they've been losing to horrid teams. Still, there will be much debate about where Duke should be placed in the NCAA tournament. I feel either the #8 or #9 seed ... which, of course, should peeve off whomever the #1 seed in their bracket is.

BOSTON COLLEGE: IN. [RPI: 33, SOS: 12]. BC has pretty good computer numbers but has really fallen on hard times of late. Is their physical style getting them worn out? This should be around a #7 or #8 seed.

VIRGINIA TECH: IN [RPI: 32, SOS: 22]. Tech's biggest moments have come in their two wins over UNC and a big win at Duke. However, they've lost 3 of 4 and 4 of 6 which should drop them down in the same #7-#8 range that BC is in.

VIRGINIA: IN. [RPI: 54, SOS: 50]. If this team wasn't co-ACC champions, they'd be a marked team on the bubble. They played the weakest ACC schedule, were clipped in their first ACC tournament game and lost a huge game against Wake Forest to end their season. Their record says a #5 seed, but their numbers say a #7-#9 seed.

Entering the 54th ACC Tournament, there were some around the league and various bracketology sites that felt the ACC had a shot at getting 8 teams in. Quite the remarkable feat since only once has a conference gotten that many teams in, and that was last season's 16-team Big East.

There are three teams squarely on the bubble: Georgia Tech, Florida State and Clemson. Right now, there are plenty of factors working against them:

• Ga Tech and Clemson lost their first round ACC games by folding down the stretch. Not something the selection committee likes.
• Florida State has lost 6 of 9. Clemson has lost 10 of 14. Ga Tech is 3-10 away from home.
• Florida State has the better computer numbers of the bunch ... but Georgia Tech and Clemson swept the Noles in regular season play.
• Now, it looks like only 6 teams get in, and of those six schools, really none are showing us any kind of greatness. Virginia, Maryland and Duke all lost their first games; North Carolina looked patently flippant against FSU; and Boston College needed overtime to beat the 12th seeded Miami Hurricanes. And who really believes in Virginia Tech? All that could kill perception that the ACC is a mesh of pretty good teams and nothing more.
• Right now, it looks like just one ACC school [North Carolina] will be seeded better than 5th.
• Xavier lost in the Atlantic 10 Tournament ... Nevada lost in the WAC Tournament ... Butler lost in the Horizon Tournament. There goes three at large bids out the window. Plus, the SEC tournament will have either Arkansas or Mississippi State in the finals with Florida facing Ole Miss in the other bracket. Every bubble team needs Florida to win the SEC title.
• What's also killing them is bubble teams like Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Purdue and Illinois moving along in their conference tournaments.

If push came to shove, I think Ga Tech may be the final team in, Florida State just misses out and Clemson not in the final conversation. Amazing since Ga Tech is such a deep and talented team, FSU has one of the nation's best players and Clemson was once 17-0. However, the Yellow Jackets will be the biggest Memphis and Florida fans this weekend.

Wow. What a day in the Tampa Bay area today. The ACC sent it's beloved tournament down to the Sunshine State for some good ol' fashioned fun. And, boy, was there some fun.

Four games. Four upsets.

• Game one wasn't that big of an upset as the #9 Florida State Seminoles beat the #8 Clemson Tigers, 67-66. Probably the most talked about moment was from this game, as an iffy foul call with 1.5 seconds remaining gave Al Thornton a free throw to win the game for the Noles ... and most likely send Clemson packing for the NIT. Also, where else but college sports could you see the most dominant player in a game being interviewed, smile, and all you see are braces?
• Next, the biggest of all the upsets. Miami, the last place team in the ACC, beat Maryland, 67-62, who entered the game as the hottest team in the nation. The Terps can beat Duke and UNC, but not Miami?
• On to the Duke-NC State game, where the 10th seeded Wolfpack beat the Blue Devils, meaning this will be the first ACC finals in a decade that won't have Duke in it.
• Finally, #11 Wake Forest beats Georgia Tech in double overtime, 114-112. Wake's Harvey Hale scored 1 point in regulation then 21 points in the two overtimes. This game also set ACC tournament records for most points scored by a team and most points scored in a game.

So we had Maryland, Duke, Clemson and Georgia Tech clocking out and going home today. All those teams have been ranked at some point and all were looking at getting into the NCAA tournament. Now, there could be some doubt about all of those teams. Entering the day, Florida State, NC State, Miami and Wake Forest were on the outside looking in. Really, only FSU has a look at it ... but if any of the others get on a nice roll, they could take the ACC title and an automatic bid. You just don't know this year.

Meanwhile, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Boston College sat in hotel rooms thinking to themselves that the road to an ACC championship just got a lot easier. Or that the first day of action proves that anything can happen.

Well, it's pretty much the way it was supposed to be. Clemson and Florida State, two teams in the NCAA Tournament bubble danger zone, fought it out as if it was an actual tournament tilt. As the end would down, the lead changed several times

And just like bubble teams, mistakes ruined the end. Clemson's KC Rivers [in an attempt to take the lead] committed an offensive foul. On the other end, Florida State nearly had a shot clock violation as a shot attempt was blocked and recovered by the Tigers. Back over to Clemson with less than :10 left, and they didn't even get a shot off ... instead committing a backcourt violation. Then Clemson committs a foul on a falling-down Al Thornton with less than :02 on the clock. Then, an 82% foul shooter, Al Thornton missed one of two free throws.

But Thornton did his thing again. He scored 18 first half points, 25 for the game, and flew in for a dunk that tied the game at 66-66 ... then hit the game winning free throw to give FSU the 67-66 win and move the Noles into the next round.

Now, Florida State goes on to face North Carolina ... which is a huge contest for them. For one reason, it's a great lift in their RPI ranking. Win or lose, this game looks good on their schedule. If they beat the Heels, they have an outstanding shot at getting into the tournament. If they lose in a close one, it could be enough. Getting spanked, and it could knock them back a bit.

As for Clemson, this loss may cost them an NCAA bid. They did start 17-0 to begin the season, but have limped to the finish, just 7-10 in ACC games. The selection committee won't be impressed with this slide nor the relatively easy non-conference schedule. It may be NIT time for the Tigers.

Also, if anyone watched this game on the Lincoln Financial feed, you heard Billy Packer drone on about the foul call on Thornton's shot at the end of the game.

WHEN: Thursday, 12:00pm

ABOUT CLEMSON: The Tigers [21-9/7-9] began the season 17-0 and were the final team to suffer a loss. Then, they lost 9 of their next 11 games to nearly fall off the bubble map. They did close the season with two wins, including a very impressive performance at Virginia Tech this past Sunday.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE: The Seminoles [19-11/7-9] will be the defacto home team for this one, since the ACC tournament is in Tampa. After losing five in a row, they've won their last two to end the season....the last one with Toney Douglas back after missing five games with an injury. Al Thornton is an All-ACC performer that dumped 45 points on Miami last weekend.

WHAT THIS GAME MEANS: The loser of this game most likely has no shot at getting an at-large berth for the NCAA tournament. With things happening around the mid-major scene [like Butler losing in the Horizon tournament], just winning this game won't guarantee a bid either. However, this game will have the intensity of an actual NCAA tournament game because, essentially, it is. Whomever comes out on top will face top seeded North Carolina on Friday.

OUTLOOK: Clemson won both meetings with FSU, including a blowout win a month ago...the game that the Noles' Douglas was hurt. One reason Clemson has done so well is that they've defended Al Thornton well. In the two meetings, Thornton shot a combined 11-of-28 from the field. However, over the last two weeks, Thornton has averaged nearly 29 ppg and has shot 57% from the field.

PICK: Florida State. I don't think that Clemson can beat them a third time. Al Thornton seems to be on a mission, and Toney Douglas' return from injury makes all the difference.

Also see other ACC Tournament previews:

• Maryland-Miami preview
• Duke-NC State preview
• Georgia Tech-Wake Forest preview

In my personal ACC awards, I pretty much nailed what would ultimately be what the Atlantic Coast Sports Media Association voters named for their awards.

Like me, they named Boston College forward Jared Dudley the Player of the Year. Dudley had a stranglehold of this honor for most of the ACC season. There was some late sentiment for Virginia's Sean Singletary [who had a great season as well] due to the Cavs' run for a share of the ACC title.

Both Dudley and Singletary did end up on the All-ACC team. They are joined by North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough, Florida State's Al Thornton [who did end up 2nd in POY voting] and Virginia Tech's Zabian Dowdell. Again, no surprises at all here. In fact, I nailed that one with my mid-season awards I made in January. The 2nd team was made up of Virginia's J.R. Reynolds, Maryland's D.J. Strawberry, Boston College's Tyrese Rice, Duke's Josh McRoberts and North Carolina's Brandan Wright. The 3rd team is Wake Forest's Kyle Visser, Georgia Tech's Javaris Crittenton, NC State's Brandon Costner, Virginia Tech's Jamon Gordon and Miami's Jack McClinton.

Wright won the rookie of the year award, much to no one's surprise. This is the third straight season a Tar Heel has won this award. In 2005, Marvin Williams won it, while Tyler Hansbrough won it last season. Joining Wright on the All-Freshman team is teammate Ty Lawson, Georgia Tech's Crittenden, NC State's Costner and Duke's Jon Scheyer.

And...ho-hum...Virginia's Dave Leitao ended up as the Coach of the Year. Leitao took a team that many picked in the bottom half of the ACC and made them into co-champions.

This is it. Come Thursday, the ACC tournament begins which will be the last time we'll see a few of these teams. It also means that there are minimal chances to play your way off the NCAA bubble and a couple of chances to improve/blow your seeding. So here is the lineup:

Saturday

• Florida State at Miami [RSN, noon]: This is a huge game for Florida State. Rumors are that Toney Douglas will be back, and if FSU can show that they can pop off this game, plus a run in the ACC tournament, they may be able to play their way in. The Selection Committee does take into account injuries. Of course, a loss to Miami would just kill off any shot. Pick: Florida State
• Virginia at Wake Forest [Raycom, 1pm]: A win here for the Cavs and they'll be only the 2nd team from outside the state of North Carolina to get a #1 seed in the ACC tournament since 1997 [Maryland was the top seed in their 2002 National title season]....and their first title since 1981. Wake Forest needs a win here and a run in the ACC tournament to reach the postseason [either NIT or NCAA] for the 17th straight season. Pick: Virginia
• NC State at Maryland [ABC, 3:30p]: Maryland has an outside shot at getting a bye in the ACC tournament, if they win and some other things happen around the league. Right now, the Terps are just playing for NCAA tournament seeding, and finishing off a magical run to end the season would be icing on the cake. Pick: Maryland

Sunday

• Clemson at Virginia Tech [Raycom, 1pm]: Clemson needs this win. They are 6-9 in the ACC and it's hard to believe they could make the dance with 10 Ls, especially with the second half of the season they've had. Va Tech is in the tournament, still fighting for a bye in the ACC dance and trying to build up a better seed. Pick: Va Tech
• Boston College at Georgia Tech [Fox Sports Net, 3pm]: Huge game here. Tech is in the middle of a wonderful week, after demolishing North Carolina and trying to build an NCAA tournament resume. They are about as on the fence as you can get. BC is in the tournament, but hard to figure out right now. Pick: Ga Tech
• Duke at North Carolina [CBS, 4pm]: The two bitter rivals meet again to end an ACC season. UNC will know what it can do before this game, but as the weekend began, they could finish in 1st or could fall all the way down to 5th. UNC has been very average lately, going just 4-4 in the last month and pretty much shutting themselves out of a #1 seed [and working on screwing up their #2 seed]. Duke can't get an ACC bye, and could fall as far as 7th in the conference. Upset Pick: Duke

Normally, I do my Br-ACC-ketology on Monday mornings....but with one game left in the regular season, it's a good time to take a quick look to see who needs what this weekend.

LOCKED IN

• North Carolina. They are in....but are falling out the race for a #1 seed
• Maryland. The hottest team in the ACC beat UNC and Duke in back-to-back games.
• Duke. They are 4-4 at home in conference play and have been unremarkable....but they, somehow, have solid numbers.
• Virginia. You win 11 ACC games: you are in!
• Virginia Tech. Yeah, 10 conference wins should be a lock, too.
• Boston College. See above.

ON THE BUBBLE

• Georgia Tech. Their RPI isn't that good, but they do have big wins over UNC, Memphis and Duke. They need to beat BC and get at least one win in the ACC tournament to make sure of it.
• Clemson. The overtime win over Miami stops the bleeding, but it really didn't instill confidence with the selection committee. They have to beat Virginia Tech this weekend. If not, they'd be 6-10 in the ACC and that just isn't going to work.
• Florida State. FSU is in major trouble here....just on the basis that both Ga Tech and Clemson swept them this year. If they are in a tiebreaker type situation, that would kill them. Plus that signature win over Florida doesn't seem as big of a deal as it once did.

CRAPPED OUT

• NC State, Miami, Wake Forest. At least State can try to get into the NIT.