GREENSBORO, N.C. -- The preseason media poll that predicted North Carolina would share the Atlantic Coast Conference championship with Duke was still hours from being released. The national polls that picked the Tar Heels sixth (by the media) and fourth (by the coaches) were more than a week away.But Roy Williams didn't feel a need to wait to issue a disclaimer about the early exuberance over his defending national champions.
"The expectations of our young kids, and the way they were evaluated or ranked as a recruiting class, puts a lot of expectations on kids who have never done it,'' Williams said last month at the ACC's media day, on the day his team -- missing the top four players and 74 percent of the points from the group that had waxed Michigan State in the national title game -- split the voting for the conference title.
"We have Deon (Thompson) and Ed (Davis) and Marcus (Ginyard) who have ever done it, period, the end, and no one else,'' Williams continued. "So for that to translate to some of the things that have been chosen is a little bewildering.''
Bewildering only if you believe that Williams, who has now won two NCAA titles since returning to Chapel Hill in 2003, can't repeat what he did after the first championship in 2005, come back loaded the next season even after the talent losses. As strong as the ACC looks again this season -- matching last year's seven NCAA bids is possible, getting eight isn't out of the question -- the teams below North Carolina and Duke, with plenty more returning players, will struggle to catch the frontrunners by year's end.
And the only one that should speak out loud about getting to Indianapolis, site of the Final Four? "Bewildering'' North Carolina. The program that subtracted, among others, the last two conference players of the year (Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough) and the Final Four Most Outstanding Player (Wayne Ellington).
The cupboard is hardly bare: technically, Williams gets two starters back in Thompson, the returning forward and the only double-digit scorer coming back, and swingman Ginyard, who played only three games last season because of back surgery. Davis, the sophomore center, is merely a preseason all-ACC pick and the consensus next Tar Heel star after his coming-out party on the national stage in the national championship game. Also back as sophomores are center Tyler Zeller, who broke his wrist early last season, and point guard Larry Drew. Then there's one of the many highly-regarded freshmen entering the league this season, 6-10 John Henson. Besides that, there's not much reason to like North Carolina.
Duke also took some hits when swingman Gerald Henderson left early for the NBA and promising freshman Elliott Williams transferred. Duke also lost leadership when senior Greg Paulus graduated, on the way to the Syracuse football team. Then again, despite winning the conference tournament again, it's hard not to look at Duke's season last year as a letdown, after Villanova ran them off the floor in the Sweet 16. Duke's extended absence from the final weekend is becoming noticeable (one Final Four since winning the '01 crown), but it's not as if they'll be also-rans, with head coach Mike Krzyzewski insisting he's revitalized after the grind of also coaching the '08 Olympic team and with still-solid talent (preseason all-American Kyle Singler,returning starters Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith and a touted recruiting class).
Scheyer, in fact, will open as the de facto point guard, since Krzyzewski noted that the team never clicked more than when it finally settled on him to run the offense late in the season.
"What we're trying to do is take what we've learned from that. We've had a spring, a summer and fall to get our guys ready for that,'' he said. "We hit on a good thing.''
The next five or six teams could be interchangeable in the standings, depending on who gets on a roll at the right time. The same fate as last March could very well await -- a jaw-dropping four ACC teams lost their opening games, including Wake Forest, which had been ranked No. 1 earlier and that now has to replace its two best players in forward James Johnson and guard Jeff Teague.
But that doesn't mean they won't get in North Carolina's and Duke's way regularly. Boston College isn't expected to challenge this season, for instance, because of losses like guard Tyrese Rice -- who led the Eagles to wins over both powers last season. Conference officials took great pride in the preseason reminding everybody that the only four games that North Carolina lost last season were to ACC teams.
"What makes this league great is that every team can beat every other team, and no team thinks it can't beat any other team,'' said coach Seth Greenberg of Virginia Tech, which was one nailbiting [and controversial] last-minute loss to North Carolina in the ACC tournament from getting off the NCAA bubble. The Hokies get back four starters from that team, including scoring point guard Malcolm Delaney.
Besides the aforementioned Heels and Devils, Clemson and Georgia Tech are the only other teams ranked in the preseason national polls, but Maryland and Florida State just missed the top 25. All reached the NCAAs in 2009 except Georgia Tech, which finished dead last in the ACC and put coach Paul Hewitt squarely on the hot seat -- but Hewitt likely took himself off by reeling in 6-foot-10 Derrick Favors, the best of a strong incoming ACC crop.
Maryland, which staged a dizzying late rally to reach the NCAAs last season, shored up its biggest hole, in the middle, by adding freshmen James Padgett (6-8) and Jordan Williams (6-10); Padgett will start the season up front and Williams will get serious playing time. Nearly every other key player is back, most importantly senior swingman Greivis Vasquez, who toyed with leaving for the NBA last offseason.
In fact, of the team likely to comprise the top half, even two-thirds, of the standings this season, the one with the least experience is ... guess who.
Which is why Roy Williams was asked if the rose petals being tossed at the Tar Heels' feet this fall are more a tribute to his remarkable record of coaching and recruiting during his tenure.
"Well, I can tell you,'' he cracked, "I'm not that good.''
It will be hard to say that about his team this season.
Predictions
Order of Finish
1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Maryland
4. Clemson
5. Virginia Tech
6. Georgia Tech
7. Florida State
8. Wake Forest
9. Miami
10. Boston College
11. Virginia
12. N.C. State
All-ACC: Kyle Singler, Duke; Greivis Vasquez, Maryland; Ed Davis, North Carolina; Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech; Sylven Landesberg, Virginia. Player of the Year: Singler.
Top 5 TV Games: Michigan State at North Carolina, Dec. 1; North Carolina at Kentucky, Dec. 5; Maryland vs. Villanova at Washington, D.C., Dec. 6; North Carolina at Maryland, Feb. 7; North Carolina at Duke, March 6
Most Likely to Surprise: Virginia Tech. The Hokies are hungry to prove their chops as a legit ACC basketball school, not just a football factory. They also have the conference's leading returning scorer in Delaney.
Most Likely to Disappoint: Virginia. Gets a new coach with great credentials in Tony Bennett, but his two predecessors, Dave Leitao and Pete Gillen, fit that description yet bombed out. No good reason why, either.
Most Important to His Team: Vasquez, Maryland. If he hasn't proven how indispensable he is to the Terps by now, he never will.
Best Shooter: Jon Scheyer, Duke. Another reason it's better to have the ball in his hands more often.
Best Rebounder: Davis, North Carolina. He's going to be a beast.
Most Underrated: Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech. The point guard showed flashes as a freshman last year, and he gets more talent around him this year.
Biggest Shoes to Fill: Larry Drew, North Carolina. Tyler Hansbrough's old position is loaded, but Ty Lawson's is not.
Best Newcomer: Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech. The last recruit of this renown the Yellow Jackets got might have been Stephon Marbury.
Hottest Coaching Seat: Sidney Lowe, N.C. State. It's his fourth season, the Wolfpack can barely stay out of the ACC basement, and the fan base fumes at the gap between them and their Tobacco Road neighbors.
