One of the biggest gripes against former CBS basketball analyst Billy Packer was that he didn't respect the mid-majors. He famously complained that there were too many mid-majors in the 2006 NCAA Tournament. That was the year that George Mason upset Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn to get to the Final Four.This will be the first Packer-less tournament in decades as he retired after last year's Final Four. It's a shame for him because he would have loved the makeup of the brackets this time around. Going against the recent trends, it looks as if the major conferences will get most of the at-large bids, leaving the mid-majors out in the cold.
According to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, there aren't too many mid-majors that are locks to get in if they do not win their conference tournament. Siena, Utah State and Davidson have the strongest cases to be at-large teams but there are factions that believe they won't. Utah State has that win over Utah, but nothing else. Davidson has actually lost a couple of SoCon games this year and their biggest win is against West Virginia on a neutral court. Siena just lost to Niagara last night. All will be overwhelming favorites to win their conference tournaments but they could be in trouble if they don't.
Gonzaga will snatch a bid if they don't win the West Coast Conference tournament. Butler does the same if they fail to win the Horizon.
Lunardi is also projecting that 31 of the 34 at-large bids will be going to the so-called "BCS conferences". The ACC leads the way with eight teams, followed by the Big East and Big Ten with seven each. The SEC, which is suffering a perceived down period, is projected to get five teams in the tournament. The other three bids are penciled in for the Atlantic 10's Dayton and two from the Mountain West (Utah, BYU and UNLV should all get in; one should win the conference tournament). The only non-BCS school that is currently seeded as a No. 4 seed or better is Memphis.
Even Lunardi's last four out includes nothing but BCS schools. The "next four out" features two more Mountain West schools and two Big XII schools.
All this leads up to schools from power conferences fighting for those last spots available in the tournament. It will also lead to more name matchups in the first and second round. Right now, Lunardi has first round games of Kentucky-Texas, Florida-California, Oklahoma State-Arizona State, Boston College-Tennessee, Michigan-LSU, Penn State-UCLA and South Carolina-Wisconsin.
