Bill Raftery sounded the call early and often during Thursday night's ESPN broadcast: If Michigan could pull off a home upset of No. 16 Purdue, it would essentially secure a spot in the NCAA tournament. The Wolverines upheld their end of the bargain, jumping out to a 16-point second-half lead and posting an impressive 87-78 win over the Boilermakers.So is Raftery right?
The Wolverines are now 18-11 overall, and improved to 8-8 in the Big Ten, but did the Boiler bashing really punch their dance card? Michigan hasn't received an NCAA invite since 1998, so everyone in Ann Arbor would certainly love to believe Raftery's words.
It's still a little hard to make that leap of faith, even though Michigan played about as well as it has since stunning Duke way back in early December.
DeShawn Sims paced the maize and blue with a career-high 29 -- many of which came, surprisingly, on the low post. Teammate Manny Harris, just days after being benched in overtime of Michigan's crushing loss at Iowa, added 27. The Wolverines, in a refreshingly up-tempo Big Ten game, put up a 50-spot in the second half on a ridiculous 81-percent shooting clip from the field (17-for-21) to pull away from Purdue. The Wolverines led by as much as 16 before Purdue made it respectable.
Back to Michigan's tournament resume, though. In the immediate aftermath of Thursday's triumph, Michigan had climbed into the mid-40s of the RPI, with a No. 11 strength of schedule ranking. The RPI is a little in the danger zone, but those are tournament-worthy numbers. Of its 18 wins, five are against RPI top-50 teams, with five more against teams ranked from 51-100, and just the lone bad loss at Iowa. All of this works in Michigan's favor.
But.
Michigan closes at Wisconsin and at Minnesota. Two losses there drop the Wolverines back below .500 in the league (8-10), and would leave them 3-9 in road games. Those are not tournament-worthy numbers. As it sits right now, that Iowa loss still looms gigantic, if only because, had the Wolverines beaten the Hawkeyes, they could still those their next two and finish 9-9 in the Big Ten. Add in a first-round Big Ten Tournament win, and Michigan would have 20 victories overall in that scenario. It's hard to envision that team being left out.
That would've been the easy way.
Instead, Michigan probably still needs two wins between the trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota, and the Big Ten Tournament. Regardless of what happens down the stretch, though, the Wolverines are at least a lock to be in the field-of-65 discussion. Now if only they could get Raftery on the tournament committee.
