Bubble Trouble Like Never Before

There was a time when February belonged to college basketball and the intricate puzzle of creating a 65-team bracket from a list of 340-some-odd candidates.

Then we got Rick-rolled by the steroid investigation.

So to get things where they should be here's a steroids tip that doesn't involve digging through someone's garbage:

Investigate the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Forget Barry Bonds, whose head long ago petitioned for its own zip code and whose ego already has its own senator. Forget Roger Clemens, the dyspeptic fellow with so little charm you might assume his family tree runs through Dick Cheney and a bran supplement.

Look into the bubble.

Because if it were any more fearsome, it would be sitting on the dais next to Alex Rodriguez explaining how a little Boli turned it into the monster that is it today.

In fact, somebody go ahead and check what its cousin, the NIT, has been passing its way.

This is the year of parity in college basketball, where good is great and darn near everyone has some claim on good most nights. Five teams have already been No. 1, a sixth is likely to be crowned Monday. North Carolina and Pittsburgh have established themselves as the best teams in the nation, but the difference to No. 3 and the rest of the schmoes is so thin that even Lindsay Lohan thinks it should eat a sandwich.

And so that minefield of teams not-quite-as-good has officially the most dangerous bubble since the housing market turned you from millionaire to Dollar Menunaire.

When the draw comes out, this year, Roy Williams won't be the only coach getting his mouth scrubbed with Ivory.

Just take a look at the teams lurking on the bubble. Miami, currently 10th in the ACC, whooped Wake Forest by 27, took Duke to overtime in Cameron and beat Kentucky and Florida State. They've got eight losses and none are to teams outside the RPI top-100. And then there's Jack McClinton, who has more range than Tiger hitting Superballs. Enjoy that as an 11 seed.

Florida State, the tallest team in the nation, could start a roofing company with no need for ladders. North Carolina needed a running 3-pointer at the buzzer to avoid overtime against the Seminoles, and they toppled Clemson in Littlejohn Coliseum. Enjoy that in the second round, No. 1 seed. And if you miss Florida State in the second game, you might get Davidson, Kentucky or Texas. Enjoy explaining to the alumni that Stephen Curry, Jodie Meeks and A.J. Abrams just torched you for more points than Mike Krzyzewski has endorsements.

Heck, West Virginia is currently projected as a seven seed and it's sixth overall in the Pomeroy Ratings, 11 spots higher than projected No. 1 Oklahoma.

And the further down the seed lines you go, the more brutal it gets. Boston College, which beat both Duke and North Carolina (and that in Chapel Hill), is an 11 seed.



UNLV is projected as a 12 seed and it's 4-3 against the RPI top-50. Michigan is currently projected out but has beaten both Duke and UCLA and gave UConn all the fight the Huskies could handle. Georgetown is sitting outside the bubble. You want to try and stop Greg Monroe? Those same Huskies couldn't. At home. Want to bet against him on a neutral court in a one-and-done setup?

Yes, the E! Network is sending the USC song girls to scary places for a reality show, but unless one is a candlelight dinner with Randy Johnson, nothing is as frightening as the prospect the top seeds face.

Meanwhile, all those projected top seeds just aren't all that frightening. Duke will get a No. 2-No. 4 seed, but the Blue Devils, who have lost four of their last seven, couldn't look more beatable if they wore Detroit Lions jerseys. Louisville is its own brand of enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a full-court press. Xavier, currently a No. 3 seed in Joe Lunardi's projections (albeit before Thursday night's loss), has dropped its last three road games, two to teams wondering whether the CBI is still around. Tennessee has all the enthusiasm for defense that Joe Paterno has for contact lenses.

Even at No. 1, there is uncertainty. Memphis, which owns the nation's longest winning streak, and Oklahoma could both claim top seeds, but the Sooners lost to 12-11 Arkansas and Memphis' best win (according to the RPI, though Gonzaga might disagree) is over Tennessee. The Sooners' defensive efficiency rating is 49th in the nation. No team in the past five seasons has made the Final Four with an efficiency rating anywhere near that low.

So how exactly did we get to this free-for-all?

Part of it is performance. The ACC and Big East have been so good all season long that teams which, in a normal year, might find a comfy spot somewhere in the middle of the top seeds are pushed to the bottom of the bracket. Add the lack of depth among mid-majors -- only the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 seem like certain multi-bid conferences – and the result is a host of teams fighting for the bubble that have already proved what they can do against the nation's best. In perception, at least, that makes for a bubble that seems much more fearsome than one filled with teams you'd need a satellite package to see regularly.

The rest, of course, is parity. The SEC, Big Ten, Mountain West and particularly the Pac-10 all have a host of very good teams, whose records are as much a factor of when, where and how games were played rather than serious differences in talent.

All of which makes for one heckuva March cocktail and the kind of eruption to come that usually involves a volcano full of sulfur or John Daly and an economy-sized tub of bean dip.

So just kick back and enjoy one unforgettable bubble show.

Assuming, of course, the bubble doesn't get indicted first.