Is UCLA Underrated?

Is UCLA underrated? The words kind of jump off the page. Like the words don't go together. That would be akin to asking, is Alex Rodriguez an honest guy? Does Mike Patrick hate Duke? The words, they just don't match.

The fine gentlemen at Basketball Prospectus (via Mark Whicker's excellent blog on the Orange County Register site) would beg to differ. John Gasaway says that the Bruins are highly underrated and Joe Lunadri's Bracketology is highly laughable.

Oh, really?

If the Bruins want to prove that they are underrated, then they certainly have a great chance to prove it this weekend as they travel to the desert.

First off, and Gasaway admits this, the Bruins are projected a No. 5 seed because a loss to Michigan doesn't look so hot. But he points out that UCLA has one of the best offenses in recent years based on points per possession. The Bruins average 1.16 points per possession this season, which ranks ahead of last year's mark at this time, and is third in the nation.

View that with a critical eye though.

The stat geeks can pour out all of the numbers they like, but wins are what matters right now. Where was this points per possession average when UCLA was gagging an 11-point lead at home to Arizona State last month? Those final possessions at the end of the game and overtime where horrific. Everybody remembers the pass, pass, pass, pass and awkward shot combo during the closing minutes. There were actually no points per possession.

Latest College Basketball Photos

North Carolina State's Dennis Horner, back, pulls in a rebound over Wake Forest's Tony Woods during the first half at the RBC Center in Raleigh, North Carolina, Wednesday, Feburary 12, 2009. (Ethan Hyman/Raleigh News & Observer/MCT)

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North Carolina State's Tracy Smith goes for two while defended by Wake Forest's Chas McFarland and Tony Woods, right, during the first half at the RBC Center in Raleigh, North Carolina, Wednesday, Feburary 12, 2009. Despite the contact, no foul was called on the play. (Ethan Hyman/Raleigh News & Observer/MCT)

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Duke guard Nolan Smith (2) tries to get inside the North Carolina forward Tyler Hansbrough (50) and Ty Lawson (5) during second half action at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, Wednesday, February 11, 2009. UNC defeated Duke, 101-87. (Chuck Liddy/Raleigh News & Observer/MCT)

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University of North Carolina fans celebrate in Chapel Hill,N.C., after North Carolina defeated Duke on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009. It was the first of two regular season matchups between the rival schools. (AP Photo/JASON ARTHURS /The News and OIbserver)

University of North Carolina fans celebrate in Chapel Hill, N.C., after North Carolina defeated Duke on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009. It was the first of two regular season matchups between the rival schools.(AP Photo/JASON ARTHURS/News and Observer)

Utah guard Lawrence Borha breaks for the basket past San Diego State forward Kyle Spain during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009, in Salt Lake City. Utah defeated San Diego 67 - 55 (AP Photo/Kenny Crookston)

San Diego State forward Billy White (32) takes a shot over Utah center Luke Nevill (50) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009, in Salt Lake City. Utah defeated San Diego 67-55. (AP Photo/Kenny Crookston)

San Diego State forward Kyle Spain, right, drives to the basket past Utah forward Shaun Green during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009, in Salt Lake City. Utah defeated San Diego 67-55. (AP Photo/Kenny Crookston)

San Diego State forward Ryan Amoroso (43) is fouled by Utah forward Shaun Green (21) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009, in Salt Lake City, Utah. Utah defeated San Diego 67-55. (AP Photo/Kenny Crookston)

Duke's Gerald Henderson (15) splits the North Carolina defense of Ty Lawson (5) and Danny Green (14) during the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, Wednesday, February 11, 2009. UNC defeated Duke, 101-87. (Chuck Liddy/Raleigh News & Observer/MCT)

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But this is a different Bruins team right now. UCLA isn't just beating opponents, they're crushing them. Is this a true turnaround for the Bruins? They can prove it tonight against the stingy Sun Devils defense. Arizona State is second in the Pac-10 in points-per-game defense, allowing 58 points per game. (And they're 27th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, for the Pomeroys in the crowd.)

The Bruins have shown more aggressiveness in recent games, getting to the basket, instead of allowing other teams to dictate tempo. The Bruins shot only eight free throws against the Sun Devils in the first meeting. UCLA went to the line 31 times against USC, and 18 times against Notre Dame (while holding the Irish to only 10 foul shots).

UCLA has certainly turned a corner. And while that statistical mumbo-jumbo freaks me out, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that the Bruins are a much better team than they were a month ago. Don't be surprised to see UCLA win this one going away.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

2-12-2009 @ 11:59AM

jmandsonspaint said...

Good Morning Adam and Bruin Fans. Over the past 4 gamers we have seen a transformation unfold before our eyes. We have gone from a slow, deliberate offense to one that includes fast breaks, outlet passes leading to fast breaks. Turnovers that are turning into points rather than 10 passes around the perimeter and clank off the rim.
I read an article 2 weeks ago about a meeting between Collison, Shipp and Senior leadership and Howland the coach.
It seems the chains were taken off the Bruins and they have been allowed to speed the game up. This has been a wise choice as we do not have the dominant Center K Love.
If the Bruins can run the Table and win the Pac 10 Championship they will have a shot at a #1 seed. Realistically a 2 seed for certain.
I forsee a blow-out tonight will the Bruins winning by 20 plus.
GO BRUINS

2-12-2009 @ 4:11PM

luapbopbop said...

Not that ucla was having a bad year, but Howland saved ucla's season by letting them run at every opportunity and playing deep into their bench. They blew the first ASU game by taking the air out of the ball too early. The Michigan and Texas losses were so long ago it seems like last season. What good are those wins over ucla and Duke now that Michigan can't win a league game. It's how a team finishes that matters. All ucla needs to do is keep winning. We'll learn a lot on this Arizona trip.

2-12-2009 @ 6:50PM

jwoot said...

Maybe, but UCLA hasn't shown to have the power that UNC and UConn have shown.

2-12-2009 @ 11:21PM

P. Noland said...

They just lost to Arizona State.

Nope.

2-13-2009 @ 2:08AM

kmgolf said...

I don't get how some writing passes as sports journalism. For instance, "Don't be surprised to see UCLA win this one going away." Honestly, who would be surprised? It was two good teams matched up with each other. Also, UCLA was 12 spots higher by ranking. So saying "Don't be surprised" is about the most obvious and least definitive thing one could say. The only reason someone makes a statement like that is so they can say "A-ha, I told you don't be surprised" if they win or "Well, I didn't say it would happen, just don't be surprised if it does." I feel like I am reading the talking heads transcripts for the WWL. At least say "I think UCLA has turned the corner and will win in the desert" after talking them up so much.