Too Much of a Good Thing Is a Bad Thing: An Atlantic 10 Tournament Preview

Until Eliot Spitzer found his way to the Emperors Club, the Atlantic 10 had the inside track on the biggest fade from glory in 2008. Entering the year with dreams of four or more bids in the NCAA Tournament, conference play has brought about an end to those dreams. Cannibalization, attrition and plain old underachieving make the possibility of just one bid an uncomfortably real one.

We know Xavier is dancing. They could lose their first game and still be assured of a spot in the tournament. It would really hurt their seeding but they've done more than enough to get in. They will probably be joined by one more team. There's an outside chance at three but the WCC, CAA and Sun Belt upsets don't help that cause any more than Rhode Island and Dayton playing mediocre basketball for the past three months.

As bizarre as it may sound, the league's overall ability is a liability. According to Basketball Prospectus, there's a better chance of 10-seed Duquesne making the tourney final than four-seed Richmond and only a 22% chance that Xavier and Temple, the top two teams, meet in the finals.

So who is going to get that second bid?

Dayton and Rhode Island each spent time in the Top 25 and got lots of love but unless they win the auto bid they're NIT bound. Same goes for Saint Joseph's which couldn't play consistent enough basketball to get 10 wins in the league. No team with less than 10 wins has gotten an invite to the dance since 1994 and there's too many other good bubblers for that to change this season.

UMass has the inside track on a second bid. They've got the right mix of RPI (40), conference record (10-6) and momentum (six straight wins to end the year). But those 10 conference wins include zero against Xavier or Temple, the second place team, which makes it a very soft 10 indeed. .

Temple was very impressive in league play, including a 19-point pasting of Xavier. They also played a very challenging out of conference schedule, something you always like to see. You also like to see a team win some of those games, though, and Temple didn't do that.

Assuming each wins their first game, they'll play in the semis at Atlantic City on Friday. That's a big assumption, though. As we've mentioned, the parity in the A-10 is beyond belief and while that means great basketball, it could also mean just one bid.