There's been no doubt about which mid major conference has been the biggest surprise to this point of the season. The Atlantic 10 has played the eighth toughest non-conference slate in the country and has a sparkling 113-65 record to show for their efforts. They've beaten teams from just about every one of the power conferences, they've won on the road and at neutral sites and reclaimed the standard that they ceded to the Missouri Valley conference in recent years. You have to go back to 2004 to find a year when the league landed more than two teams in the big dance and, entering this season, it didn't seem like things would be all that different. Everyone knew Xavier is a consistently strong program but it was hard to find too many bullish projections about a second team that should be making March plans. What a difference two months make.
As of right now, it's almost impossible to see the league landing fewer than four teams in the tournament. Seven teams are in the top 67 of the RPI, three teams in the Top 25 and they've compiled so many quality wins that, barring a complete collapse by two of the front-runners, anything less would be criminal.
Let's break it down:
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- Xavier has to be the first team mentioned because of what they've shown us to this point in the season. There aren't many teams that bring an attack as balanced as the Musketeers. They have six players scoring in double figures, four players averaging five or more rebounds, the most efficient offense in the nation and a solid defense.
- Dayton entered this season with a chip on its shoulder after missing out on a NIT bid last March. They've put that chip to good use this season. They are seventh in RPI thanks to wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh and have just an away loss to George Mason darkening their record. They have issues to work out with their free throw shooting and defense but they might have the league's best player in Brian Roberts.
- Rhode Island was too young to do anything last season but their players grew on the job and coach Jim Baron scheduled very well. Games against B.C., Providence and Syracuse challenged them, they won the latter two, while the rest of the schedule was made up of winnable games without dropping too low in competition. They play a very fast pace and have improved by leaps and bounds defensively, a good mix for conference play.
- Massachusetts has spent a long time wandering in the forest but have finally returned to relevance. They play at an even faster pace than URI, not surprising given Travis Ford's pedigree, and have the conference's best backcourt. Their defense is a concern, they're allowing 77.4 points a game, as is their rebounding which means they're going to have to outscore everyone or fall out of contention.
- St. Joseph's doesn't have the gaudy records or cornerstone victories of the four teams listed above but shouldn't be counted out because of that. The Hawks can really shoot the ball and Phil Martelli is a smart, experienced coach with a few tricks up his sleeve as well. Basketball State, a new and valuable resource, has devised their own rating system of merit and St. Joe's ranks above the other teams in the conference, something to keep in mind if they pull an upset or two.
- Duquesne's defense makes them a strong contender for that dark horse spot but they just turn the ball over too much to count on against strong defenses night in and night out. That D and their frantic pace will make them a nightmare to play, though.
- Temple's Fran Dunphy has the makings of a good team but it's at least a year too soon for the Owls. They are terrible defensively and play too sloppy on offense, hallmarks of a youthful team and of a team not ready to contend.
- It's fun to have Rick Majerus back on the sidelines but the Billikens aren't strong enough to hang in a conference this loaded at the top.
- Charlotte wasn't expected to be great but then they knocked off Wake Forest and Davidson, raising eyebrows and expectations. Those were negated by losses to Monmouth, Hofstra and Tulsa, though. Strong defensively, the 49ers suffer from serious issues putting the ball in the basket.
- Drew Lavender is the best of the X-Men and a joy to watch running their offense. Roberts is a big-time scorer who hits 46.9% of his three-point tries. Will Daniels of URI is a rugged forward who scores and rebounds all night. UMass' backcourt troika of Gary Forbes, Ricky Harris and Chris Lowe is relentless offensively and Forbes adds 7.6 rebounds to his 20 points. He'll contend with Temple's Dionte Christmas for the league's scoring crown. Bryant Dunston of Fordham matches interior scoring with nearly three blocks a game. That's good but Shawn James of Duquesne rejects 4.4 a night so don't drive on him. It takes Leemire Goldwire a lot of shots (36.3% shooting) but the Niner gets his points by hook or crook, while Ahmad Nivins of the Hawks lacks only opportunity. He's hitting 64% of his shots but averaging just 13.7 points a game.
