With Christmas in the offing, gifts are on my mind. And when you're talking about college basketball, the most sought after gift is an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Every conference gets its representation but the elusive multiple bid is why teams go out and play all comers in the first two months of the season. It's still too early to know anything for sure but with the nonconference season winding down, I thought we'd take a look at Conference RPI and see who is looking like they're being nice enough for Santa to remember them come March. Missouri Valley (Conference Rank: 7) - The early season buzz is that the MVC will struggle to get a second team into the tournament but that seems a bit capricious. Creighton has opened the season very strong and Drake sits at 40th overall in RPI but the early struggles of Southern Illinois has lowered expectations for the conference. They had an impressive win against Western Kentucky over the weekend and play Butler in a massive game on Friday. SIU is the only team with the nonconference strength of schedule that raises eyebrows, though. The MVC's quest for a second bid will have a lot to do with how well they play in conference.
Atlantic 10 (CR: 8) - As of right now, anything less than three bids seems like an impossibility. Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton and UMass are all in the Top 21 of RPI with Duquesne and Temple holding strong within the top 64. Charlotte has shot itself in the foot with losses to Monmouth and Hofstra while Saint Louis has made strides under Rick Majerus but not enough to fill you with confidence in their long term chances. The conference season is going to go badly for at least one of the top six, probably two, but a fourth bid is there for the taking.
Horizon (CR: 9) - Butler's strength is going to make the Horizon a two-team league unless league play goes very badly for Valparaiso and/or Wright State. Both have high RPIs and Wright has played a ridiculously difficult schedule quite well thus far. Valpo looks like the best bet for postseason dancing, mostly because Samuel Haanpaa has made them a deadly shooting team that won't be out of many, if any, games.
Mid-American (CR: 13) - One bid will be all for the MAC. They've been dreadful through the nonconference slate, 58-71, and with Miami and Ohio in the same division, it's hard to imagine a second team being strong enough come the end of the season for the selection committee to hand them a second berth.
Colonial (CR: 14) - They are rated lower than the MAC right now but still have a better chance at a second team. Let's call George Mason the favorite right now which leaves Virginia Commonwealth as the other team with a puncher's chance. Their one bad loss, Hampton, is balanced by wins against Maryland, Houston and Bradley and if they cruise through the conference they'll be in the reckoning.
Metro Atlantic (CR: 15) - Siena's big win against Holy Cross and Niagara's upset of St. John's will matter for seeding but it's one bid for the MAAC.
Sun Belt (CR: 16) - Conference play should be a blast in this well-balanced league especially because South Alabama, Western Kentucky, Arkansas-Little Rock and New Orleans will be fighting for one spot.
Summitt (CR: 18) - If Oral Roberts earns their third trip they'll get a nicer seed after knocking off Oklahoma State.
Southern (CR: 19) - Davidson was the only team that had a chance at the at-large but losing all their big noncons means its win the tournament or go home.
