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Hibbert vs. Oden: The Breakdown, Part I

3/27/2007 8:01 AM ET By mjd

    • mjd
So how's this thing going to shake out? Conventional wisdom and hype suggest that Oden is the superior player. In 2010, he probably will be ... but for 2007, I am unconvinced.

We'll start with defense. Oden's got the better reputation, and his shot-blocking ability is (rightfully) talked about all the time, but ... let's not sleep on Roy Hibbert in the defensive department. Hibbert doesn't have the blocked shot numbers, but he wouldn't. Georgetown prefers to play at a more deliberate tempo, and since he has fewer opportunities to block shots, he gets fewer blocks. I don't know what the exact numbers are here, but if you project Hibbert's blocks per game to blocks per possession, I bet they're pretty close to Oden.

Like Oden with the Buckeyes, Georgetown's defense absolutely leans on Hibbert. When he's in the game, it's like a giant oak tree sprouted up from the floor right in the middle of the paint. Ask UNC how much easier it gets when Hibbert sits. He alters a ton of shots when he can hang out around the basket. And since Ohio State never really moves Oden away from the basket, Hibbert will always be around it.

And defensively, in this game, Oden could struggle. John Thompson III, with elements of that Pete Carril offense, is going to make Oden guard all over the floor. He can't do it. He's a great shot blocker, amazing defensive rebounder, and in the paint, he's a beast. But he's not that good of a defender near the perimeter. When Georgetown's running their sets, they make everyone on the floor guard. They could get Oden into foul trouble like this.

Offensively, both players could stand to be a little more assertive and demand the ball. Oden more than Hibbert, really, since Georgetown runs so many structured things that don't leave a lot of room for ball-demanding. Ohio State is more free-flowing, letting Mike Conley call the shots, but did show get the ball more in the post and showed more moves against Memphis than he had all-season long.

I think Ohio State made it a point to hammer it in the Oden in the regional final against Memphis for two reasons: 1) It would be fun to mess with Joey Dorsey, and 2) it would be easy to mess with Joey Dorsey (and I don't want to leave out Dorsey's backup, Kareem Cooper, who might as well have been a student manager standing there holding one of those big padded things).

Neither of those things would be true against Roy Hibbert, and I think Ohio State would be wise to stay out of the paint. It's not that I think Oden can't handle Hibbert ... he'd get his points. But Hibbert is the strongest point of a strong defense, and Ohio State doesn't need to go inside. Why mess with it if they don't have to? They can just as easily score on the perimeter, and I think that's what you'll end up seeing.

Hibbert vs. Oden: The Hype
Hibbert vs. Oden: The Breakdown, Part I
Hibbert vs. Oden: The Breakdown, Part II

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